Wednesday, April 4, 2012

1 day until opening day

ESPN top 25 for next year:
1. Indiana                 2. Louisville                 3. Kansas             4. Kentucky           5. Ohio State
6. NC State             7. Michigan State         8. Michigan          9. Florida               10. Baylor
11. North Carolina   12. Arizona                13. Memphis        14. Syracuse           15. Duke
16. Texas               17. Notre Dame       18. Creighton     19. Gonzaga      20. Kansas State
21. Wisconsin          22. Va. Comm.           23. San Diego St. 24. Tennessee         25. Missouri
677. Thomas Robinson's arms and trapezoids are kind of smallish - NOT
678. I like most of the minor changes to the NFL uniforms by Nike - especially the redesign of the Seahawks
679. a big shout out and congratulations to Joe Larger of Russia who retired from the foundry last week after 44 years and 8 months as a great, great employee!!!!!!!!!!!!
680. in honor of Reds opening day tomorrow - Talkin Baseball with the Reds video

681. great read from Moe Egger about the Votto deal:    Oh yeah, the Reds and Joey Votto did something mildly surprising yesterday.
Did they overpay? Yes.
And it's very, very fair to wonder the following...
How in the hell are they going to pay for this?  How will their TV deal change?  Are they looking to enter into some sort of partnership with Fox Sports Ohio and is there anyway that such a deal could be lucrative enough to pay for the biggest non-free agent contract ever? Is a new ownership partner on the horizon?  And how much are the Reds banking on The Banks?
How will affect you and I.  The Reds have a passionate fan base, but one still more conditioned to watch games instead of going to them.  How much will ticket prices increase?  How will the Votto deal affect the cost of going to Great American Ballpark?  After signing Pujols, some ticket prices at Angels games went up 100%.  That's not gonna fly here.
And will Votto end up paying for himself?  Pujols will directly sell more tickets in the interim, helping to offset his massive cost to a team that operates in a much, much, larger market.  We're excited that Votto is here to stay, but did this news sell one more ticket for this season? 
But still....despite the cost, despite the questions, and despite the fact that the Reds will face significant questions about how they'll pay for other players while Votto is occupying such a massive part of the payroll, this is a good thing....
Because Joey Votto is really, really, freaking good.
I'm taking the shortsighted view here because I frankly couldn't care less about what the deal will mean for the Reds in 2023.  I don't even want to think about 2023, but if I have to, I acknowledge that paying Joey an obscene amount of money in 2023 will be counterproductive to winning. But if between now and 2023 (seriously, we're talking about 2023 already?) the Reds win a few World Series with Joey as the team's centerpiece, I'll deal with it.
He has a chance, with this deal, to be one of the top five Reds of all-time.  This is not an overstatement.  He is an elite, once-in-a-generation hitter that this team has not seen in decades.  You don't replace offensive players like this in their prime, which should last another five years, minimum.  The single most important Reds development of the last ten years has been the arrival of Votto and his ascension into one of the game's premiere players.  The next most important development could be the team assuring that his best years will all be spent in Cincinnati.
That means we'll get front row seats for a gradual decline, but if before then he goes form perennial All-Star to eventual Hall of Famer, and the Reds throw a few championship parades in the process, then I'll live with it.
-Yes, this affects Brandon Phillips.  I never bought that this had to be Joey v. Brandon, but if it has to be, can we say something that we're reluctant to admit?
Joey Votto is a better player than Brandon Phillips.
If pressed to name my favorite Red, I'd spit out Brandon's name.  He made last year's team watchable.  He's the best defensive second baseman I've seen and he's become one of the best offensive players at his position.
He's just not as good as Joey.
Votto is a walking triple crown threat, a consistent MVP candidate, and one of the great offensive forces in the game.  He scares the crap out of opposing pitchers and can completely change a game just with his mere presence.
Brandon isn't, isn't, and doesn't.
And he's older.
Yes, this deal increases the amount of uncertainty surrounding second base.  But that uncertainty already existed.  Brandon and the Reds dance for a while then step back.  Is it all that wrong for the Reds to allow Joey to cut in?
Sometimes you have to make a choice.  If this is as simple as that, the Reds have chosen the better player.  If this angers Brandon, he can channel that into a killer 2012 that will help him break the bank on the open market while helping the Reds get to the postseason before he does. 
-This makes the Latos deal look better. They control a promising arm until 2015 and stave off some of the criticism they received for dealing Joey's heir apparent.
-This puts a lot of pressure on the farm system.  With Joey commanding so much money, and the bill on other top players coming due soon, the Reds won't be major players in free agency.  They need to develop Major League-ready players who can contribute immediately.

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